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Summary Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) endeavor to predict how global forests will respond to climate change. This requires simulating which trees, if any, are able to recruit under changing environmental conditions. We present a new recruitment scheme for VDMs in which functional‐type‐specific recruitment rates are sensitive to light, soil moisture and the productivity of reproductive trees.
We evaluate the scheme by predicting tree recruitment for four tropical tree functional types under varying meteorology and canopy structure at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We compare predictions to those of a current VDM, quantitative observations and ecological expectations.
We find that the scheme improves the magnitude and rank order of recruitment rates among functional types and captures recruitment limitations in response to variable understory light, soil moisture and precipitation regimes.
Our results indicate that adopting this framework will improve VDM capacity to predict functional‐type‐specific tree recruitment in response to climate change, thereby improving predictions of future forest distribution, composition and function.
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Abstract Lianas and other climbing plants are structural parasites of trees, generally reducing host tree survival, growth, and reproduction, yet their influences on the outcome of competition among tree species have remained largely unexplored.
We propose that there are three distinct components to liana–tree interactions:
prevalence , defined as the proportion of infested trees;load , defined as the mean liana cover on infested trees; andtolerance , defined as the effect of a given level of infestation on tree population growth rates. We introduce a new metric that integrates these components, the lianaburden , defined as the total effect of lianas on per capita population growth rates given current prevalence, load, and tolerance. Using these metrics, we quantify variation among 33 co‐occurring tropical tree species in liana–tree interactions and its relation with shade‐tolerance.The focal tree species vary strongly in liana prevalence, load, tolerance, and burden. Interspecific variation in tolerance is the largest contributor to interspecific variation in burden. Species rankings of per capita population growth rates under current liana infestation levels differ somewhat from rankings under liana‐free conditions, and differ strongly from rankings under uniformly high liana infestation. Thus, lianas alter competitive hierarchies to benefit tree species that are relatively tolerant of and/or resistant to lianas. Among the focal tree species, shade‐tolerance is positively correlated with liana tolerance and prevalence, but largely unrelated to load and burden, meaning shade‐tolerance does not predict which species are competitively disadvantaged by lianas. We describe a variety of mechanisms by which lianas may potentially increase or decrease niche differences among tree species, including interactions with spatial and temporal environmental niche partitioning, and potential differences among tree species in relative vulnerability to different liana species.
Synthesis . Lianas, like other natural enemies, can in principle alter competitive hierarchies and niche structure of co‐occurring tree species, and our analyses suggest such influences are substantial in our focal tropical tree community and likely many other tree communities as well. Quantifying these effects requires a more comprehensive approach including analyses and modelling of dynamics of liana–tree interactions and their variation with tree and liana species identities. -
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Abstract Lightning is a major agent of disturbance, but its ecological effects in the tropics are unquantified. Here we used ground and satellite sensors to quantify the geography of lightning strikes in terrestrial tropical ecosystems, and to evaluate whether spatial variation in lightning frequency is associated with variation in tropical forest structure and dynamics. Between 2013 and 2018, tropical terrestrial ecosystems received an average of 100.4 million lightning strikes per year, and the frequency of strikes was spatially autocorrelated at local‐to‐continental scales. Lightning strikes were more frequent in forests, savannas, and urban areas than in grasslands, shrublands, and croplands. Higher lightning frequency was positively associated with woody biomass turnover and negatively associated with aboveground biomass and the density of large trees (trees/ha) in forests across Africa, Asia, and the Americas. Extrapolating from the only tropical forest study that comprehensively assessed tree damage and mortality from lightning strikes, we estimate that lightning directly damages c. 832 million trees in tropical forests annually, of which c. 194 million die. The similarly high lightning frequency in tropical savannas suggests that lightning also influences savanna tree mortality rates and ecosystem processes. These patterns indicate that lightning‐caused disturbance plays a major and largely unappreciated role in pantropical ecosystem dynamics and global carbon cycling.
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Abstract Tropical forests are a key determinant of the functioning of the Earth system, but remain a major source of uncertainty in carbon cycle models and climate change projections. In this study, we present an updated land model (LM3PPA‐TV) to improve the representation of tropical forest structure and dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs). The development and parameterization of LM3PPA‐TV drew on extensive datasets on tropical tree traits and long‐term field censuses from Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. The model defines a new plant functional type (PFT) based on the characteristics of shade‐tolerant, tropical tree species, implements a new growth allocation scheme based on realistic tree allometries, incorporates hydraulic constraints on biomass accumulation, and features a new compartment for tree branches and branch fall dynamics. Simulation experiments reproduced observed diurnal and seasonal patterns in stand‐level carbon and water fluxes, as well as mean canopy and understory tree growth rates, tree size distributions, and stand‐level biomass on BCI. Simulations at multiple sites captured considerable variation in biomass and size structure across the tropical forest biome, including observed responses to precipitation and temperature. Model experiments suggested a major role of water limitation in controlling geographic variation forest biomass and structure. However, the failure to simulate tropical forests under extreme conditions and the systematic underestimation of forest biomass in Paleotropical locations highlighted the need to incorporate variation in hydraulic traits and multiple PFTs that capture the distinct floristic composition across tropical domains. The continued pressure on tropical forests from global change demands models which are able to simulate alternative successional pathways and their pace to recovery. LM3PPA‐TV provides a tool to investigate geographic variation in tropical forests and a benchmark to continue improving the representation of tropical forests dynamics and their carbon storage potential in ESMs.
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Abstract Tree death due to lightning influences tropical forest carbon cycling and tree community dynamics. However, the distribution of lightning damage among trees in forests remains poorly understood.
We developed models to predict direct and secondary lightning damage to trees based on tree size, crown exposure and local forest structure. We parameterized these models using data on the locations of lightning strikes and censuses of tree damage in strike zones, combined with drone‐based maps of tree crowns and censuses of all trees within a 50‐ha forest dynamics plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama.
The likelihood of a direct strike to a tree increased with larger exposed crown area and higher relative canopy position (emergent > canopy >>> subcanopy), whereas the likelihood of secondary lightning damage increased with tree diameter and proximity to neighbouring trees. The predicted frequency of lightning damage in this mature forest was greater for tree species with larger average diameters.
These patterns suggest that lightning influences forest structure and the global carbon budget by non‐randomly damaging large trees. Moreover, these models provide a framework for investigating the ecological and evolutionary consequences of lightning disturbance in tropical forests.
Synthesis . Our findings indicate that the distribution of lightning damage is stochastic at large spatial grain and relatively deterministic at smaller spatial grain (<15 m). Lightning is more likely to directly strike taller trees with large crowns and secondarily damage large neighbouring trees that are closest to the directly struck tree. The results provide a framework for understanding how lightning can affect forest structure, forest dynamics and carbon cycling. The resulting lightning risk model will facilitate informed investigations into the effects of lightning in tropical forests. -
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Summary The mortality rates of large trees are critical to determining carbon stocks in tropical forests, but the mechanisms of tropical tree mortality remain poorly understood. Lightning strikes thousands of tropical trees every day, but is commonly assumed to be a minor agent of tree mortality in most tropical forests.
We use the first systematic quantification of lightning‐caused mortality to show that lightning is a major cause of death for the largest trees in an old‐growth lowland forest in Panama. A novel lightning strike location system together with field surveys of strike sites revealed that, on average, each strike directly kills 3.5 trees (> 10 cm diameter) and damages 11.4 more.
Given lightning frequency data from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network and historical total tree mortality rates for this site, we conclude that lightning accounts for 40.5% of the mortality of large trees (> 60 cm diameter) in the short term and probably contributes to an additional 9.0% of large tree deaths over the long term.
Any changes in cloud‐to‐ground lightning frequency due to climatic change will alter tree mortality rates; projected 25–50% increases in lightning frequency would increase large tree mortality rates in this forest by 9–18%. The results of this study indicate that lightning plays a critical and previously underestimated role in tropical forest dynamics and carbon cycling.
